Kuningi okubhekwayo nokunesandla endleleni izwe elibhekwa ngama-ratings agency ngayo, kuloba uJabulani Sikhakhane
ZINE izinto ezibalulekile ezicutshungulwa kabanzi uma kubhekwa indlela uhulumeni wezwe aphethe ngayo umnotho walo nesimo sezimali. Lo msebenzi wenziwa yizinkampani ezibizwa ngokuthi ngama-ratings agency.
Lezi zinkampani zibheka imikhakha emine: isimo somnotho wezwe, ukuphathwa kwalo, ezinye izinhlaka zikahulumeni (njengezinkantolo, iphalamende, abacwaningimabhuku), isimo sezimali zikahulumeni namandla ezwe okumelana nezingozi ezingadala izinkinga emnothweni noma kwipolitiki.
Esimo somnotho ama-rating agency acubungula izinga lokukhula komnotho wezwe, ubukhulu nobubanzi bomnotho wezwe nesikalo sentuthuko kwezomnotho esaziwa ngokuthi, phecelezi i-national income. Lapha kusetshenziswa isikali esibizwa nge-income per capita.
Kuthathwa isikali somkhiqizo wezwe sihlukaniswe ngesibalo sezakhamuzi. Ngamafuphi, kutholakala inombolo ekhomba ukuthi umuntu ngamunye unengxenye engakanani yomkhiqizo wezwe. Isikali nje, akusho ukuthi umuntu ngamunye ezweni usewumnikazi wengxenye yomkhiqizo walo. Izwe elinabantu abaningi nomkhiqizo womnotho omncane liba ne-income per capita encane, okuthathwa njengenkomba yezinga lentuthuko ephansi.
INingizimu Afrika, okuyizwe elibekwa ezingeni eliphakathi nendawo, phecelezi i-middle-income, ngokwentuthuko line-income per capita ka-$6 000, kuthi iMelika umnotho wayo omkhulu kunayo yonke emhlabeni jikelele ine-income per capita ewu-$86 000. Noma umnotho waseSwitzerland umncane kunoweMelika kodwa i-income per capita yalo inkulu (iwu$103 000) ngoba isibalo sezakhamuzi zayo (elingaphansi kuka-9 million) lincane kakhulu kunelaseMelika (335m).
Kunezinhlaka ama-ratings agency acubungula ukuthi zisebenza kahle kanjani. Emandleni kahulumeni kwezimali, abheka kabanzi umthwalo wezikweletu nokuthi angakanani amandla kahulumeni okumelana nalo mthwalo.
Ngokwengozi kubhekwa engadalwa ezepolitiki, isimo lapho uhulumeni ungakwazi ukukhokha khona izindleko nezikweletu zawo, engaqhamuka ngokuntenga kwamabhange nengozi engadalwa wushintsho esimweni somnotho nezimakethe zezimali emhlabeni jikelele. Okubalulekile ngayo yonke le ngozi wukuthi izwe lingakwazi ukumelana nayo na.
Okubalulekile ngesimo somnotho wezwe ngamandla ezwe okumelana nokushesha livuke uma lihlaselwa uisimo esithile ebesingalindelekile.
Kubalulekile futhi nokukwazi ukumelana noshintsho ngesimo somnotho olungathatha isikhathi eside, phakathi kwalo esingabala oludalwa wuguquko esimweni sezulu noshintsho ngabantu abakhe ezwe. Kulolu shintsho singabala ukwanda kwabantu asebempunga, kunciphe abasebasha. Loku kuvame ukudala ukushoda kwezisebenzi ezweni, okulandelwa ukunyuka kwezindleko zokuqasha izisebenzi.
Amanye amazwe aseNtshonalanga abhekene nale nkinga. Elinye lamazwe elibhekene nale nkinga yi-United Kingdom, lapho abantu abaneminyaka ewu-65 nangaphezulu bewu-19% wezakhamuzi.
Ngokwemininingwane ekhishwa yiStatistics SA, eNingizimu bangaphansi kuka-10% abantu abaneminyaka ewu-60 kuya phezulu.
Inhlangano yabezimboni e-United Kingdom yabika ngo-2023 ukuthi amafemu awu-77 kwayikhulu abika ukuthi abebhekane nokushoda kwezisebenzi ezinyangeni eziwu-12 ezedlule. Awu-38 ekhulwini abika ukuthi awasakwazi ukwandisa umkhiqizo noma angene ezimakethe ezintsha ngenxa yokushoda kwezisebenzi, ikakhulu ezinamakhono.
Ama-rating agency athi amandla kahulumeni okuqoqa imali yentela, okuyiyo esetshenziswa ukukhokhela izikweletu zikahulumeni, ancike kakhulu esimweni somnotho (ikakhulukazi ukukhula kwawo). Athi umlando ukhomba ukuthi ohulumeni abehluleka wukumelana nezikweletu ngabamazwe ayentenga emnothweni.
Ubukhulu nobubanzi bomnotho busemqoka. Lapha kubhekwa kakhulu ububanzi bezingxenye zomnotho. Izwe elinomnotho onezingxenye eziningi usesimweni esingcono sokumelana nezinkinga.
Loku kwacaca ngo-2021 ngesikhathi ezokumbiwayo eNingizimu Afrika zithola umvuzo omkhulu ngokunyuka kwentengo yomkhiqizo wazo. Loku kwandisa imali yentela kahulumeni ngesikhathi ezinye izingxenye zomnotho zisantenga emva kokuhlasela kwe-COVID-19.
Zibalulekile izinhlaka ngoba ziyinkomba yokuthi izwe lingethembeka, ikakhulu ngasekuphathweni kwemithetho nemigomo kahulumeni. Ama-ratings agency athi kunezinkomba zokuthi izwe elinezinhlaka eziqinile livame ukubaqotho ngokukhokha izikweletu zalo.
Okwesibili, izinhlaka eziqinile zivame ukuhambisana namandla ezwe okusungula amasu nemigomo yozomnotho, okubalulekile ekukhuleni kwawo nokuvikeleka kwezinkampani eziboleka uhulumeni imali.
Esigabeni sezinhlaka ama-ratings agency axube konke. Yilawo angaphansi kukahulumeni nezinkampani ezizimele, ikakhulu kubalwa lezo ukusebenza kwazo kuqondene nokusungula nokwengamela imigomo ephathelene nomnotho. Kubhekwa nalezo ezisetshenziswa ukuqondisa izigwegwe kuhulumeni, njengezinkantolo nje.
Amandla ezimali kahulumeni ayinkomba yokuthi ungakwazi yini ukumelana nomthwalo wezikweletu. Isikali somthwalo wezikweletu sibunjwa ngokuqhathanisa izikweletu zikahulumeni nesomkhiqizo wezwe, phecelezi, i-GDP nempumelelo kahulumeni ukuqoqa imali yentela.
Kubhekwa namandla kahulumeni okukhokha inzalo yezikweletu. Lapha kuqhathaniswa inani lenzalo elikhokhwa unyaka nonyaka nenani lemali yentela eqoqwa wuhulumeni. Ukwanda kwemali yenzalo kusho ukuncipha kwemali uhulumeni angayisebenzisela izinhlelo zawo – njgezokuthuthukisa izwe nezokubheka izidingo zezakhamuzi.
