Okwenzeka eChina kuzobanomphumela omkhulu eNingizimu Afrika
YINTATHELI YOMBELE
NGOLWESINE iChina izoshicilela imiphumela yomnotho wayo yekota yokuqala yonyaka. Le miphumela ibalulekile njengoba iChina izibekele umgomo wokukhulisa umnotho ngo- 4.5% kuya ngo-5%. Imiphumela yokukhula komnotho yekota yokuqala ibalulekile ngoba yiyona ezokhombisa ukuthi ngabe izokwazi yini ukufinyelela kulowo mgomo.
Ngaphandle kwezibalo zokukhula komnotho, imiphumela yokwenzeka emnothweni waseChina izobe iqukethe umbiko wemboni yokukhiqiza, eyokudayisa izimpahla nezibalo zabantu abangasebenzi. Konke loku yikona okukhombisa ukuthi kwenzekani ngokukhulisa umnotho. Okubaluleke kakhulu kuzobawukubona ukuthi ukukhiqiza kwezimboni kuqhubeke kahle nokuthi yini ethengwa ngabantu kakhulu.
ENingizimu Afrika, okwenzeka eChina kubalulekile ngenxa yokuthi yiyona ethenga imikhiqizo embiwa ezimayini zezwe kakhulu. Kuzokwenza ukuthi imiphumela yokukhiqiza kwezimayini yangoFebhuwari iqashwe ngeso lokhozi kuleli sonto.
Imiphumela edlule yamangaza ngenxa yokuthi okumbiwayo okuningi kwenza kahle, ikakhulu ama-platinum group metal ne-manganese. Umbuzo manje wukuthi ngabe imiphumela yangoFebhuwari izokhombisa ukuthi okumbiwayo kuqhubekile nokudayisa ngamanani amahle noma ukuphazamiseka kokuhambisa izimpahla phesheya kuzobanomphumela omubi.
I-S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (iPMI) inyuke isuka ku-50 ngoFebhuwari yaya ku-50.8 ngoMashi. Izinkomba ezine kwezinhlanu ze-PMI bezizinhle kodwa inkomba yokudiliva izimpahla ibingekho yinhle ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kokuhambisa izimpahla okwenza zingadiliveki ngesikhathi esilindelekile.
FUNDA NALAPHA: Ukungacaci kwezingxoxo zokuqeda impi eseMiddle East kwenza abatshalimali bangahlaliseki
Ukukhiqiza izimpahla kunyukile ngenxa yokuthi amabhizinisi ebethenga kakhulu isitoko ngoba elindele ukuthi amanani ezinto azidingayo akhuphuke. Izimpahla ezigcinwe emabhizinisini ziqale ukunyuka ngoNovemba wangonyaka odlule kanti nokuqasha abantu kunyuke kakhulu kusukela uma kuqhathaniswa nangoMeyi wango-2024.
Lilonke, yize iPMI ikhuphukile kodwa izinselelo zokuhambisa izimpahla zikhombisa ukuthi ayikezu kubuyela esimweni esijwayelekile.
Okunye wukuthi yize imiphumela yocwaningo ikhombisa ukuphucuka kwesimo samabhizinisi ngoMashi kodwa izinkomba zokungahambi kahle kwesimo somnotho nokuphazamiseka kokuthutha izimpahla ngenxa yempi eseMiddle East seziqalile ukubonakala. Ama-oda amasha anciphile nokwehlise izimpahla amazwe azidayisa ngaphandle, ukwehla okusheshe kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nokweminyaka emibili edlule.
Ukukhuphuka kwamanani kawoyela, ukuqina kwedola nokuntenga kwerandi kanjalo nomthwalo wamaholo kunyuse izindleko zamabhizinisi. Amabhizinisi anyuse amanani adayisa ngawo izimpahla ngasekupheleni kwango-2024. Njengoba i-Absa PMI ikhombisa ukuthi amanani akhuphukile kodwa ukuthenga emabhizinisini kwehlile.
Ukukhiqiza kwehle ngo-2.8% uma kuqhathaniswa unyaka nonyaka ngoFebhuwari, kulandela ukwehla ngo-0.1% unyaka nonyaka ngoJanuwari. Loku kwehla kubonakala ekwehleni kwezimpahla ezikhiqiziwe emikhakheni ehlukene.
Ukukhiqiza ukudla neziphuzo kwehle ngo-4.5% unyaka nonyaka okufake u-1.1 percentage points ezibalweni. Ukukhiqiza ukhuni nemikhiqizo yalo, amaphepha, ukushicilela nomthamo wezimpahla ezishicilelwe wehle ngo-9.7% uma kuqhathaniswa unyaka nonyaka okuwu-1% ezibalweni zonke. Ukukhiqiza insimbi nemikhiqizo eyenziwe ngayo nemishini kwehle ngo-3.6% uma kuqhathaniswa unyaka nonyaka, okubewu-0.8 percentage points.
Ukukhiqiza kwehle ngo-2.2% inyanga nenyanga ngoFebhuwari kusukela ekukhuphukeni ngo-1.9% ngoJanuwari. Loku kuhambisana nokuthi i-Absa PMI yangoFebhuwari yayibikezele ukuthi kuyantenga ukukhiqiza. Loku kusho ukuthi ukukhiqiza akukezu kukhula ngenxa yezinselelo zokungathengeki kakhulu kwemikhiqizo nezinselelo zokuthutha izimpahla. – Le mininingwane itholakale kwiBureau for Economic Research