Izinguquko ezweni seziqala ukuthela izithelo, kuloba uBusi Mavuso

NGESONTO elidlule kubenezindaba ezimnandi ezintathu kanti zonke zisho into eyodwa. Ukusimama komnotho kubengaphezu kobekulindelekile. IBhange lomHlaba limemezele ukuthi iChweba laseThekwini lenze kangcono kunawo wonke emhlabeni. I-Fitch iphucule indawo eklelise iNingizimu Afrika okokuqala eminyakeni ewu-20. Uhlelo loguquko seluqala ukuthela izithelo.

Isimemezelo seFitch silandela eseS&P sangonyaka odlule ngokubasihle kanti neMoody igcwalise ukuthi inethemba ngegama leNingizimu Afrika lokukweleta. Nakuba sisekude ukufinyelela ezingeni elimqoka ngokwegama lokutshala izimali kodwa umgqigqo uhamba kahle.

Njengoba iFitch ishilo kwisimemezelo sayo, loku kukleliswa kufakazela ukuphucuka endleleni yokuphatha izimali nezingugquko kwingqalasizinda. Lezi zinto zombili zisho ukuthi izwe lizohlomula ngokusimama komnotho kuhambisana nokuphatha izimali zikahulumeni, amazinga aphansi ezikweletu nokwanda kwemali esalayo ngemva kwesetshenziswayo.

I-Fitch ibalule ukuthi ukutholakala kukagesi nokuphucuka kokusebenza kwezokuthutha kuzosimamisa lowo mkhakha womnotho.

Le zimpawu zombili zibonakele ekusimameni kwamandla erandi nezimakethe zokutshala, kwathi ama-bond nezabelo kwadlondlobala, nakuba izinto bezimapeketwane ngenxa yempi eseMiddle East. Kunezinguquko ezimqoka kanti nabatshalimali bayazibona.

Ngamachweba, inkomba yeBhange loMhlaba ebheka ukusebenza kwamachweba ikhombisa ukuthi iChweba laseThekwini lidlule amanye emhlabeni phakathi kwango-2024 nango-2025, lasuka ekubeniwu-403, laya ku-398.

Manje imikhumbi isisebenzisa isikhathi sayo esiwu-76% ilayisha noma ithulula, isuka esikhathini esingu-52%, okusho ukuthi sesisincane isikhathi esichitha ilindele ukuthola indawo yokulayisha noma yokuthulula. Ulayini wemikhumbi elindele ukungena yehlile isuka kwewu-20 kanti ayisekho manje.

Njengoba lisho iBhange loMhlaba, loku kuphucuka kwezinto kufakazela ukutshala imali okusha nokwanda kweqhaza lemboni ezimele, okubalwa kukhona ukudlulisela i-Durban Container Terminal embonini ezimle. INgqurha neGqeberha babalwe namanye amachweba awu-20 avelele emhlabeni jikelele.

FUNDA NALAPHA: Uhulumeni uthakasile ngokukleliswa kweNingizimu Afrika

Akukho ukuzithela ngabandayo. IChweba laseThekwini lisesendaweni esezansi kakhulu futhi umthamo walo ungaphansi kowange-Covid-19. Nokho libuwufakazi bokuthi uguquko luyabonakala.

Inselelo wukuthi izinguquko ezinqala zithatha isikhathi ukushintsha izinqumo zokutshala imali emnothweni. Ngo-2023, ngesikhathi sinezinsuku eziwu-300 zokucinywa kukagesi, akekho umtshalimali onomqondo owayezophasisa ukhwakha imboni enkulu noma muphi umsebenzi wokwakha.

Nakuba manje sekuphele unyaka ugesi ungakaze ucime futhi nemboni yezokuthutha sezithembekile, izibalo zokutshala imali nokukhula komnotho zangesonto elidlule ziyantenga njengoba beziku-13,5%, ongasondeli kwakusondela ku-30% odingekayo ukuthi iNingizimu Afrika ibeyindawo yokusebenza.

Kungani abatshalimali bengaphenduli? Ziningi izizathu eziyimbangela yaloko. Abatshalimali badinga ubufakazi besikhathi eside obukhombisa ukuthi izinguquko ngezesikhathi eside, akuzona ezesikhashana nje. Sidinga iminyaka eminingi elandelanayo yokusebenza into ebonakalayo ngaphambi kokuthi abatshalimali babeke imali yabo engcupheni.

Ukungabaza ngezinqubo zezinto ezinjengokuthenga izimpahla nokwenza umsebenzi ne-Broad-based Black Economic Empowerment, esengike ngabhala ngakho kule ngosi, kwenza kubenzima ukuthatha izinqumo ngokutshala imali.

Nokungaqondakali kwesimo sempi eseMiddle East kwenza abatshalimali baqikelele kakhulu eminothweni esathuthuka. Yizinkinga ezixazululekayo lezi kodwa kufanele sazi ukuthi yini ebambezela ukutshala imali.

Uma ithemba selibuyile nokutshala imali sekunyukile, ukusimama komnotho kuhamba kahle namabhizinisi ayatshala ukwandisa umkhiqizo ukuze ahambisane nesidingo sangomuso. Kudingeka ukuthi iNingizimu Afrika iqale lowo msebenzi wokukhulisa umnotho. Izinga lokukhula komnotho eliwu-0,5%, nakuba lithembisa kodwa liphansi.

I-IMF ilindele ukuthi i-sub-Saharan Africa izokhula ngo-4,3% kulo nyaka, kuthi omakhelwane iBotswana neZimbabwe bakhule ngo-5%, i-Ethiopia izokhula ngo-9.2%. Ukwandisa izinga lokutshala imali lethu yiwona msebenzi omqoka osihlalele ukukhulisa umnotho wethu esifundeni sethu.

Ukufeza lowo msebenzi sidinga ukuphokophela ekwenzeni izinguquko. Usemningi umsebenzi odinga ukwenziwa kwezokuthutha nemboni kagesi. Sidinga indawo enezinkampani ezizimele ukuze sikwazi ukuqhudelana kule mikhakha yomibili.

Asikwazi ukuphela amandla. Wukuphela kwendlela yokuvuselela ukutshala izimali.

Kufanele sihlale sigade ukungahlehleli emuva kwipolitiki. Kubengumsebenzi omkhulu ukuthi iNingizimu Afrika ikhishwe ohlwini lamazwe anengozi yokushushumbisa imal i-FATF grey list ekuqaleni konyaka. Ukubakulolo hlu bekwenza kubenzima ukusebenza namanye amazwe asemhlabeni, kwandisa izindleko zokuhweba futhi kuvimba abatshalmali abadinga abalingani abahlanzekile.

I-FATF isiyasihlola futhi, kanti kulindeleke ukuthi umbiko omusha uphume ngo-Okthoba wango-2027.

Izinto ezivela kwiKhomishini kaMadlanga, okuyinkohlakalo esemazingeni aphezulu emaphoyiseni ethu, yibona kanye bufakazi obuzobhekwa ngabahloli be-FATF. Uma sihlehlela emuva, sisengozini yokubuyela ohlwini lwamazwe okulula ukwenza izenzo zobushobukobezi kuwona, okuzoqeda ithemba abatshalimali abazama ukulivuselela.

Ngakho umsebenzi wekhomishini awuyona nje into yepolitiki kepha futhi ngeyomnotho. Ngemva kokubuka umsebenzi weKhomishini kaMadlanga nokhomishana bebuzisisa futhi bephenyisisa ubufakazi obuphambi kwabo, angingabazi ukuthi umbiko wabo wokugcina uzobanezincomo ezinqala ngokukhuculula inkohlakalo kwezomthetho.

Engikhathazeke ngakho wukuthi ngabe osopolitiki bazobanothando lokulandela lezo zincomo nangokushesha okudingekayo.

Iqiniso elibuhlungu wukuthi ubufakazi obuphambi kwekhomishini abugcini nje ngokukhombisa ubuthaka bezomthetho. Bukhombisa izinga ipolitiki ebikhuthaza inkohlakalo ngayo iKhomishini esungulelwe ukuyiphenya. Okuvela kwikhomishini kwembula osopolitiki izinqe, kukhombisa ukugxambukela kwepolitiki nokuhluleka kosopolitiki emsebenzini wokubayiso lomphakathi.

Ngabe osopolitiki bazobanesibindi sokulandela izincomo ezingabathena Amandla, zibembule izinqe futhi zibenze ukuthi baphendule ngezenzo zabo?

Ngakho impumelelo yangempela yekhomishini kaMadlanga ngeke kubeyizinga lezinto ezozithola. Angingabazi ukuthi zizobanqala. Impumelelo kuzobawukuthi abaholi bepolitiki baleli zwe bazobanesibindi sokuzisukumela.

Abantu baseNingizimu Afrika akufanele bemukele okungaphansi kwezincomo zekhomishini. Kufanele sibeke ukulandelwa lezo zincomo ngomfutho ofanayo nesasinawo ngokusukumela owokubasohlwini lamazwe angenamithetho evimba izenzo zobushokobezi.

Kukho konke lokhu, sishaya ngonyawo oluhle. Ukugezeka kwegama lezwe, ukuphucuka kwamachweba, ukuphela kokucinywa kukagesi nokukhula kancane komnotho akusiwona ucilo uzishaya endukwini, kepha ziwumphumela wezinguquko ezinqala. Kuvuselelwa isisekelo somnotho. Kuzolandela izinqumo ngokutshala imali. Nokho kufanele sibhukule ukuze siphumelele.