INingizimu Afrika idinga ukuzivuselela ibewumgudu abatshalimali abangena ngawo e-Afrika, kuloba uBusi Mavuso

UMBIKO we-International Monetary Fund (i-IMF) obuyekeza isimo sezimali samazwe i-Fiscal Monitor uveze isithombe esingesihle ngokukhula komnotho emhlabeni nasezweni.  

Izinto ezenzeka kwamanye amazwe, ikakhulu imibango yezohwebo equtshulwe yiMelika nezinye izimpi ezenzeka kwamanye amazwe, zilimaza iNingizimu Afrika esikhathini umnotho wayo ovele ubheda ngaso futhi yilapho kanye okufanele sigxile khona ngalezi zikhathi ezinzima ukulungisa lapho sixega khona ngokuqinisa esimweni somnotho nokwandisa amazwe esihwebelana nawo ukuze silungele ukubhekana kangcono nezinselelo ngomuso. 

Loku kusho ukushintsha indlela esenza ngayo izinto, ukubuyekeza amazwe esihwebelana nawo nokuqhubeka nezinguquko ezinqala esizibophezele kuzona futhi esesivele sihlomula ngenye inqubekelaphambili esibekhona nokuqinisekisa ukuthi isimo sethu sezimali siyaqhubeka siyalunga, kungabhedi izinto njengokuxwayisa kwe-IMF embikweni wayo.

FUNDA NALAPHA: https://www.umbele.co.za/2025/04/09/ukwandisa-amazwe-esihwebelana-nawo-kumqoka-kuloba-ubusi-mavuso/

Ithe uma uhulumeni uqinisa umgomo wemali, isikweletu sikahulumeni sizokhuphuka sibe wu-88% womthamo womnotho ngo-2030, okungaphezu kakhulu kwango-73% umNyango weziMali ozibekele ukusehlisela kuwona. I-IMF inxuse iNingizimu Afrika ukuthi ikusukumele ukwehlisa isikweletu, yathi kufanele sizame ukusinciphisela ekutheni sibephakathi kwango-60% no-70% womthamo womnotho. 

Ibuyekeza futhi indlela umnotho ozokhula ngayo ngo-2025 kusuka ku-1.5% ekuqaleni konyaka kuya ku-1.0%, kanti okushiwo yiBhange loMhlaba kona kubi kakhulu njengoba lithe umnotho uzokhula ngo-0.7%. Lesi sithombe esimbi sibhebhezelwa nawumnotho womhlaba i-IMF esilindele ukuthi ukhule ngo-2.8% kulo nyaka, esikhundleni sika-3.2% owawubikezelwe ngoJanuwari ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kokuhwebelana kwamazwe.

Ukubheda kwesimo somnotho kakhulu kusukela ngoJanuwari kusho ukuthi kufanele sigxile ezintweni esikwazi ukuzilawula. Kuzona kubalwa ukulawula isikweletu ngokuthi singavumi ukuthi sikhuphukele ku-88% ngoba loko kuyobanzima kakhulu ukusehlisa futhi kunengozi ngempela yokuthi izinto zibhede kakhulu, okungaphoqa izwe ukuthi licele ukutakulwa yi-IMF, okuyoba yishwa ngempela. 

Siyakwazi futhi ukulawula uhlelo lwezinguquko ezinqala kanti ukubaluleka kwaloku kubonakala esitatimendeni esisanda kukhishwa yiKumba, ethe yize izinguquko kwezezitimela zisesekuqaleni kodwa ukuphucuka ukusebenza kweTransnet kubenesandla ekukhuleni ngo-6% komthamo we-iron ore oyidayisile. 

Yigxathu elincane leli kodwa libalulekile. Ngo-2022 iMinerals Council yabika ukuthi imboni yezimayini yalahlekelwa wuR50 billion ngoba yayingakwazi ukuthutha izimpahla ngesikhathi ngenxa yokungasebenzi kahle kweTransnet. 

Izwe lidinga imboni yokuthutha izimpahla esebenza kahle nogesi othembekile ukuseka ukukhula komnotho nokuheha abatshalimali bakwamanye amazwe futhi nokukhulisa umthamo wezimpahla ohwebelana ngazo.  

Yize kubalulekile ukuthi izwe liqhubeke lizikhandle ukuphucula indlela elisebenzisana ngayo neMelika, kufanele lizame ukwandisa amazwe elisebenzisana nawo. Ukutshengisa inqubekelaphambili emsebenzini wokuthula izinguquko ezinqala kuzoheha abatshalimali futhi kwandise esihwebelana nabo. 

Ezingxoxweni esisanda kubanazonohulumeni iBusiness Leadership South Africa (iBLSA) igqugquzekile ukubona indlela okwenziwa ngayo ukuzama ukuvuselela ubudlelwano neMelika nokugcizelela ukubaluleka kokuhwebelana namazwe ehlukene. Kuloku kubalwa umsebenzi owenziwa wumNyango wokuHweba, iziMboni nokuNcintisana ohambe phambili ngomsebenzi ewenzayo ukuhlela izingxoxo neMelika. 

I-BLSA iyakuthanda ukuthi akuliwa neMelika nomsebenzi owenziwayo ukubheka ukuthi yiziphi izimboni ezivele zisebenza eMelika ngenhloso yokwandisa imali etshalwe khona.

Lo mnyango ugcizelele nokubaluleka kokubumbana, into egcizelelwe ngosanda kuqokwa njengenxusa elibambile eMelika uMnu uMcebisi Jonas ngesikhathi ehlangene neBLSA ngesonto elidlule lapho esho khona ukubaluleka kokusebenzisana nokuxhumana phakathi kweminyango kahulumeni namabhizinisi ukuqikelela ukuthi okudingwa yiNingizimu Afrika kuseqhulwini. 

Ukuxhumana ngocingo komengameli bobabili uMnu uCyril Ramaphosa noMnu uDonald Trump nezindaba zokuthi bavumelene ukuhlangana siyathemba ukuthi kusho inqubekelaphambili ekuvuseleleni ubudlelwano neMelika eseyizwe elibalulekile kwesihwebelana nawo.

Yize uthuthuva oludalwe wuhulumeni kaTrump ngomgomo wawo wentela ugcizelele ukubaluleka kokwandisa amazwe esihwebelana nawo, into egcizelelwe nangamalungu eBLSA. Kuningi iNingizimu Afrika ekuphethe okungabawukuphucula ukusebenzisana namanye amazwe ase-Afrika ngesivumelwano esigqugquzela ukuhwebelana ezwekazini i-African Continental Free Trade Area, into engisanda kuyisho kuyo le ngosi nokusebenzisa ukuvuseleleka kwesasasa nge-Afrika okuqhamuka kubatshalimali emhlabeni, ikakhulu abaseMiddle East. 

Engqungqutheleni eyayikhuluma ngokusebenzisana emhlabeni ngonyaka odlule eRiyadh neyayihanjelwe ongqongqoshe bezohwebo abawu-35 basemazweni ase-Afrika, iGulf Cooperation Council, efaka i-United Arab Emirates (i-UAE), iSaudi Arabia, iQatar, iKuwait, iBahrain ne-Oman, kwamenyezelwa izinhlelo eziwu-73 zokutshala imali e-Afrika zenani elingaphezu kuka$53bn.

I-UAE neSaudi Arabia banamathuba amaningi angasiza iNingizimu Afrika. Iphephandaba lase-United Kingdom iGuardian libike ukuthi i-UAE yiyona eyeseka kakhulu imisebenzi emisha e-Afrika njengoba ifuna ukuthi abafuna amathuba kuleli zwekazi basebenzise yona njengomgudu ikakhulukazi iRussia, iChina namanye amazwe aseNtshonalanga. Phakathi kwango-2019 no-2023 izinkampani zase-UAE zamemezela imisebenzi yenani lika-$110bn e-Afrika kanti engu$72bn kuyo bekungekagesi ovuselelwayo, okuphindiwe enanini lezinkampani zaseChina e-UK naseFrance.  

INingizimu Afrika isivele ibalwa namazwe aseqhulwini kwahwebelana ne-UAE kwawase-Afrika njengoba kuyiyo ephethe u-8% wokuhwebelana okungathini uwoyela e-Afrika. Phakathi kwango-2014 no-2024, izinkampani ezise-UAE zitshale emisebenzini ewu-28 eNingizimu Afrika, okukholwa wukuthi zenze imali ewu$23.64bn ngokusho kweWesgro, uphiko olugqugquzela ukuhweba, ezokuvakasha nokutshala imali eNtshonalanga Kapa. 

Ukuhwebelana phakathi kwamazwe womabili sekuvele kunyukile njengoba izimpahla iNingizimu Afrika eziidayisele i-UAE ngo-2024 zinyuke ngo-6%, zafinyelela ku$2.6bn, yize ezithengile zehle ngo- 25%, zafinyelela ku$3.98bn.

I-Saudi Arabia englinye izwe elinamathuba njengoba i-Business Tech ibike ukuthi kusukela kwabanomhlangano phakathi kukaRamaphosa nenkosi yakhona uCrown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ngo-2022, cishe sekuvunyelenwe ngo$5bn wemisebenzi ethinta ugesi ovuselelwayo, ezokuthutha izimphahla, iziteshi zikaphethroli nezakhiwo kanti kukhona neminye okuxoxwa ngayo.