Ibhange loMbuso lishayelele isipikilli sokugcina onyakeni obuvele umubi futhi lamosha noKhisimusi ngokungayehlisi imalimboleko, kuloba uTHEBE MABANGA
UNYAKA ovele usihlukumezile awupheli kahle, kunaloko uphela kabuhlungu uma kubhekwa imalimboleko enqunywa yiMonetary Policy Committee (iMPC) yeBhange loMbuso enqume ngesonto eledlule ukungayiguquli imalimboleko; njengoba lithe izoqhubeka ihlale ku-3.5%, nokusho ukuthi unyaka wonke iyehlise ngo-275 basis points noma ngo-2.75%.
Kusho ukuthi imalimboleko ibisengehliswa ngo-100 basis points noma ngo-1% okungenani ukuzama ukusimamisa ukukhula nokwethenjwa komnotho ontengayo.
Kodwa ngeke ukubone loko kuMphathi weBhange loMbuso uMnu uLesetja Kganyago nethimba lakhe “loqonda” elingaphambani nehlombe. Ingcono kabi indlela leli komidi ellibhekane ngayo nokubheduka kweCOVID-19 kunendlela elenza ngayo uma kukhulunywa ngemalimboleko yezwe.
“Kusukela emhlanganweni obungoSepthemba weMPC kuyacaca ukuthi ukuhlasela kweCOVID-19 kuzoloku kwehla kwenyuka ngenxa yokukhathala kwabantu yindaba yalolu bhubhane nanokudembesela ekuzivikeleni.”
Lisho kanje leli komidi esitatimendeni salo ligcizelela ukubhebhetheka kwalesi sifo e-USA nase-Europe kanjalo nasezindaweni ezithile eNingizimu Afrika.
Iyamangaza indlela leli komidi ebeliguquka ngayo kulo nyaka. Lalivumelene ngo-elethu ukwehlisa imalimboleko ngoMashi, Ephreli nangoMeyi, nokuyilapho imalimboleko yehliswa khona ngo250 basis points noma ngo-2.5%.
NgoJulayi lalihlukene phakathi amalungu amathathu evumelana ngokuthi kwehliswe ngo-25 basis points, kwathi kulena emibili yokugcina kwaphumelela “oKlebe”; njengoba abathathu bevumelene ngokuthi kungabe kusaguqulwa, kwathi ababili abakhale ngaphansi bebethi akwehliswe ngo-25 basis points.
UKganyago wuyena okhiphe ivoti eliwujuqu ngeledlule. Loku kukhombisa ukuthi kudingeka amanye amalungu kuleli komidi nokuthi kumele libuyele esibalweni salo sakuqala samalungu ayisikhombisa, hhayi lesi sayisihlanu eliyisona njengamanje noma kube nesihlalo esisodwa okuzoshintshwana ngaso somuntu oyedwa wangaphandle ongamenywa kweminye imihlangano.
Umehluko omkhulu oshintshile kule kota edlule yindlela okulindeleke ukuthi umnotho ukhule ngayo. Leli bhange lithe selilindele ukuthi umnotho wehle ngo-8%, esikhundleni sika-8.2% kanti elinye lamabhange lithe lilindele ukuthi umnotho ukhule ngo-8.2%, esikhundleni sika-9.2%.
Loku kungenxa yokuthi kulindeleke ukuthi kube ngcono kakhulu ukukhula komnotho ngekota yesithathu.
“Nokho ukubuyela lapho sasikhona ngaphambi kokuqala kobhubhane kuzothatha isikhathi,” kusho sitatimende seMPC.
“Ukwehla kakhulu kokutshalwa kwemali nguhulumeni nanemboni ezimele kuzoba nomthelela eminyakeni ezayo. Umnotho kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule manje ngo-3.5% ngo-2021 kanti ngo-2022 uzokhula ngo-2.4%.”
Leli bhange lithe aliboni ukuthi amandla emali angaba yinkinga.
“Ngo-2020 amandla emali ami ku-3.2% nokungaphansi kancane kwesasikuqagulile, sibheke abe wu-3.9% ngo-2021 bese kuthi ngo-2022 kube ngu-4.4%.”
Loku kuqubula umbuzo: uma amandla emali engeyona ingozi, pho ayehliswa ngani imalimboleko ukusiza ukukhulisa umnotho nokudala amathuba omsebenzi?
Ngeke ukubone loku ngaleli komidi futhi isitatimende elisikhiphile siwashabalalise onke amathemba njengoba sithe uma lisebenzisa uhlaka lweQuarterly Projection Model (iQPM) ngeke yehliswe imalimboleko, kunaloko kubhekwe ukuthi inyuswe ngo-25 basis points ngekota yesithathu neyesine ngo-2021.
UKganyago uphinde loku adume ngakho njengoba ethe kuwumsebenzi kahulumeni ukuvuselela umnotho.
Loku yinto okumele yenziwe ngokubeka imithetho yomnotho ecophelelayo nokuba nezindlela ezinciphisa izindleko, ezinyusa amathuba okuheha abatshalimali, ukukhulisa umnotho nokudala amathuba omsebenzi.
UKganyago bekumele avale unyaka ngokwehlisa imalimboleko ngo-100 basis points ukuze abantu babenento ebajabulisayo ngalo Khisimusi, batshelwe ukuthi bathenge babuye nganeno futhi baqhubeke bazivikele.
Kunalokho sitshelwa ukuthi ekupheleni konyaka obumuncu kubhubha abantu ngapha nangapha ukuthi akusekho okunye iBhange loMbuso elingasisiza ngakho – asizibonele.
UKganyango uwumoshile uKhisimusi.
- Lo mbono uqale washicilelwa ku-www.insidepolitic.co.za
